On March 4, 1997 the Patent and Trademark Office in
Washington, D.C. issued the first ever patent on an economic
invention. Dr. Carl Lundgren, who holds a Ph.D. in economics
from Princeton University, has developed the Lundgren Forecasting
Incentive Method of forecasting and estimating future events.
This method can be applied toward prediction of future prices,
quantities, and profits. Estimates can be made of environmental
impacts, business, financial and mutual fund evaluations, and in
many other fields.
Today's decisions affect tomorrow's outcomes. The economic
need for accurate forecasts has become an important factor to
both private and public concerns. The patented forecasting
method developed by Dr. Lundgren has built-in incentives with
many desirable features. This includes unbiased forecasts,
efficient aggregation of information, and appropriate elicitation
of effort levels. Lundgren's method may be used to forecast or
estimate any observable or non-observable variable value,
including subjective values and probability estimates.
Corporate policy makers recognize the impact future sales or
profits can have on their companies. It is a vital part of doing
business. Governmental bodies need accurate, unbiased
projections to better serve their constituents. With increasing
accountability needed from both private and public institutions,
it is imperative to have in place a reasonably clear forecast or
estimate of events and probabilities. How is this best
accomplished? Through objective, unbiased, independent
Forecasting is not a new concept. The US economy lives and
breathes on forecasts. For example, stocks, bonds and mutual
funds are greatly dependent upon the probability of how well they
will do in the market. An individual or a group of people
analyze and develop a forecast, and ultimately millions of
dollars are invested based upon those predictions. The
government uses forecasts daily, and accordingly adjusts the
manner in which they conduct business.
Forecasters using the Lundgren Forecasting Incentive Method
are now presented with greater motivation for accuracy in their
analyses and predictions. The more accurate they are, the
greater the compensation they will receive for their efforts.
The Lundgren Forecasting Incentive Method pays forecasters
in accordance with the "Value Marginal Product" (VMP) of the
forecasts they produce on any variable value.
The "Value Marginal Product" is a concept economists have
used for a hundred years. In definition, the Value represents
the monetary worth or value of the product produced. Marginal is
the additional or incremental amount of Product which results
from the use of an additional input to the production process.
Product refers to the output or production of a good or service.
In its simplest form, VMP refers to the monetary worth or value
of the marginal product which the forecasters produce.
In today's ever-changing global marketplace, the emphasis
must be on staying tuned to the needs of both private and public
institutions. With a self-motivated, incentive-based forecasting
method in place, those needs can be addressed as accurately as
possible. Their survival may depend upon it.
For additional information, please contact
ValMarPro Forecasting, Inc.