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Forecasting Incentives Based on Value Marginal Product:
This paper describes a scheme of cost-efficient incentives for
eliciting unbiased predictions from human forecasters. The method measures
a close proxy for the value marginal product (VMP) of each
forecaster and pays in accordance therewith.
Peer-Group Forecasting Incentives for Unobserved Variables:
A key feature of some variables of interest is that they are
never accurately observed. This paper describes how an incentive
scheme which pays forecasters in accordance with their value marginal product
(VMP) can be used to elicit unbiased forecasts or estimates of
unobserved variables from individual forecasters.
Forecasting Incentives for an Aggregated Mutual Fund:
An application of the VMP forecasting incentive technique to
mutual fund selection is suggested. The technique can be used to select
mutual funds for inclusion in an aggregated mutual fund, which can then
be split up into objectively risk-rated financial sub-portfolios.
Efficiency of Information Incentives of a Financial Market:
This paper analyzes the efficiency aspects of a futures market
with costly information gathering. Computer simulation indicates
considerable inefficiency of the futures market compared with an
optimal forecasting institution.
U.S. Patent 5,608,620: Method of Eliciting Unbiased Forecasts By Relating a Forecaster's Pay To the Forecaster's Contribution to a Collective Forecast:
This patent describes a method of eliciting an unbiased
prediction of an unknown variable value from at least one of a group of
forecasters. The method yields nearly unbiased predictions from
risk-averse forecasters whenever at least two forecasters are
employed to make the same prediction.
Statement of Business Policy Regarding Clients, Forecasters, Promoters, and Others:
Unless otherwise specified by contract, this statement of
business policy governs all contracts between Valmarpro Forecasting, Inc.
and any client, forecaster, or promoter.
Ex parte Carl A. Lundgren:
This published and precedential decision
by the United States Patent and Trademark Office's
Board of Patent Appeals and Interferences was mailed September 28, 2005.
This decision permits the patenting of an economic method.
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