Technical Papers

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Forecasting Incentives Based on Value Marginal Product:

This paper describes a scheme of cost-efficient incentives for eliciting unbiased predictions from human forecasters. The method measures a close proxy for the value marginal product (VMP) of each forecaster and pays in accordance therewith.


Peer-Group Forecasting Incentives for Unobserved Variables:

A key feature of some variables of interest is that they are never accurately observed. This paper describes how an incentive scheme which pays forecasters in accordance with their value marginal product (VMP) can be used to elicit unbiased forecasts or estimates of unobserved variables from individual forecasters.


Forecasting Incentives for an Aggregated Mutual Fund:

An application of the VMP forecasting incentive technique to mutual fund selection is suggested. The technique can be used to select mutual funds for inclusion in an aggregated mutual fund, which can then be split up into objectively risk-rated financial sub-portfolios.


Efficiency of Information Incentives of a Financial Market:

This paper analyzes the efficiency aspects of a futures market with costly information gathering. Computer simulation indicates considerable inefficiency of the futures market compared with an optimal forecasting institution.


U.S. Patent 5,608,620: Method of Eliciting Unbiased Forecasts By Relating a Forecaster's Pay To the Forecaster's Contribution to a Collective Forecast:

This patent describes a method of eliciting an unbiased prediction of an unknown variable value from at least one of a group of forecasters. The method yields nearly unbiased predictions from risk-averse forecasters whenever at least two forecasters are employed to make the same prediction.


Statement of Business Policy Regarding Clients, Forecasters, Promoters, and Others:

Unless otherwise specified by contract, this statement of business policy governs all contracts between Valmarpro Forecasting, Inc. and any client, forecaster, or promoter.


Ex parte Carl A. Lundgren:

This published and precedential decision by the United States Patent and Trademark Office's Board of Patent Appeals and Interferences was mailed September 28, 2005. This decision permits the patenting of an economic method.


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The right to download and store or output the web pages, papers, or other items from the Valmarpro Web Site is granted to individual users for their personal use only. Governmental or business entities may internally distribute such copies, provided that such internal distribution and use is for the sole purpose of conducting or contemplating the doing of business with Valmarpro Forecasting, Inc. or its affiliated companies. Any other reproduction, by any means - mechanical or electronic - without the express written permission of Valmarpro Forecasting, Inc. is strictly prohibited. © Copyright 2003 - Carl Allin Lundgren, All rights reserved.
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